Posts Tagged ‘Predictions’

It’s finally here, the start of the NFL season!  As of writing this very sentence we are T-Minus 80 minutes from kickoff.  So I’m just in time to offer my NFL predictions.  Now I’m not going to go and start picking the trendy teams, that’s just not my style.  In fact lets look at who the ESPN experts liked to win last year’s Superbowl: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview09/news/story?id=4424374

If you want to save yourself the reading basically it’s 16 people either picking the Steelers, Chargers and Patriots.  Yawn.  One of those failed to make the playoffs and the other two were bumped in their first game of the playoffs.  I can see nobody picking the Saints (although I picked them to win their division) but nobody even picked the Colts?  16 so called experts and not one of them even got one of the two Superbowl teams right.  Amazing.  So who are the trendy picks this year?  Lets take a look: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5528592

This time we have 25 picks so lets see who ESPN jinxed this year: Ravens (8 votes), Colts (7 votes), Packers (5 votes), Falcons, Cowboys, Saints, Chargers, 49ers (All 1 vote).  As for the Superbowl losers: Cowboys (4), Steelers (1), Chargers (2), 49ers (1), Ravens (3), Texans (1), Packers (8), Bengals (1), Colts(1), Giants (1), and Saints (2).  Wow, that’s a pretty big spectrum.

So according to the experts the most likely Superbowl winner is the Ravens and the most likely loser is the Packers, so I’m not going to be picking either team.  I could see either team make it, but my #1 rule to picking the Superbowl is don’t go with the trends, it rarely works out.  First let me go ahead and pick the divisions.

NFC North: I am going with the Packers.  I just don’t see Favre having another great year like he did last year.  I love Aaron Rodgers and the defense.  The Bears will once again be held back by Jay Cutler who I find highly overrated and the Lions, who will get better, are still a ways away.

AFC North: Give me the Bengals.  If Palmer can really step up his game this will be a very good team.  They are deep at receiver and if their defense can stay healthy (unlike last year) they will be tough to beat.  Pittsburgh will be hurt by the loss of Roethlisberger and I’m just not sold on Dennis Dixon being anything more than a flashy college player, a 1-3 start in this division might be too much to overcome.  I like Baltimore but I don’t love them.  Their best defensive players are up there in age and who’s playing corner for this team?  The Browns, if they can get something out of Dellhome, they will at least put up a fight each game but that’s about it.

NFC East: Give me the GGGGGGGG Men!  No not the Cowboys, simply put, I don’t trust their offensive line.  I don’t see them being able to run or pass protect very much.  The Giants will be back on defense with the addition of Bulluck and their offense will only get better as their young receivers get better.  The Redskins, well I think McNabb will help but I still don’t like their run game or skill position players minus the tight ends.  The Eagles I think could be a real sleeper, it just depends if Kolb can be what the Eagles want him to be.  I’m not totally sold on him but I could see him doing well.

AFC East: Patriots by default.  I’m not at all sold on the Jets.  Sure their defense is great but I think putting in LT over Thomas Jones is a downgrade and Sanchez didn’t exactly light it up last year, plus they were a 9-7 team that year that made it to the playoffs by beating scrubs.  The Bills will be the Bills.  Miami it really just depends on Chad Henne, I’m not sure he’s a franchise type QB myself but he’s got himself a very dynamic receiver now so if he can’t get it done it’s on him, no more excuses.

NFC South: It’s gotta be the Saints for obvious reasons.  I like the Falcons quite a bit, if their secondary can improve from last year they have a chance to make it interesting.  The Buccaneers I think will be better than people think because I do like Freeman at QB but there’s still a lot of work to do on that defense.  The Panthers will be in last, their QB situation is really shaky right now with little to no experience and I’m not even sure if the guys they do have on their roster are that good anyway.

AFC South: Again gotta go with a team by default and that’s the Colts.  Not that I think it will be easy because it wont be.  The Texans will need to overcome a really tough schedule and the loss of Cushing for a few games, I’m not sure they can.  The Titans will be interesting to watch because it’s all on Vince Young.  This is a no excuse year.  He’s sat on the bench long enough, learned, and he played very well last year, but not great.  Now he needs to be great and that defense needs to get a lot better too.  Jacksonville, I’m thinking it’s time to rebuild, Del Rio and Garrard are not the answer, and how they passed on Dez Bryant I’ll never know, he could have been huge for them.

NFC West: Again it’s the 49ers by default.  They are in a similar boat at QB as the Titans.  Smith has learned long enough and he’s shown flashes but he’s got to be great to be the franchise QB they need him to be.  But to win this division, he just needs to be solid because their defense and run game can get it done against their competition.  With the Cardinals I like them better with Leinart actually.  Derek Anderson isn’t a good QB.  In his “good year” he still had 19 interceptions and failed to get the Browns to the playoffs in the one game they really needed to win (at Cincinnati and he threw 5 picks).  With Leinart, yea he’s probably not going to be good but we’ve never really seen him play enough.  He might not be a big upgrade over Anderson but I think he would be.  The Rams will simply be focused on building up Bradford and the Seahawks I think will be evaluating their QB situation themselves.

AFC West: Who’s ready for a surprise?  Kansas City!  Will it happen, probably not but if it does you heard it hear first.  Every year has a surprise team to make the playoffs and if Cassel can play well and remain upright then why not them?  I don’t have a lot of reasoning behind this pick other than they will just play much better than people expect, call it a shot in the dark.  The Chargers I just think are on the decline, their players are a bit overrated and if they don’t have Vincent Jackson they are in real trouble on offense.  The Raiders will be a little improved but I don’t see Campbell as a franchise QB even if he did deserve a second chance, he’s a stop gap QB to me.  The Broncos will probably be in last place, their best defensive player is out for the year, their running backs can’t stay healthy, who’s going to catch passes from uhh Kyle Orton?

OK so here’s my NFC playoff teams: Packers, Giants, Saints, 49ers, Cowboys, and Falcons.

AFC: Bengals, Patriots, Colts, Chiefs, Titans, Ravens.

And now my Superbowl pick which probably wont happen but at least it wont be trendy and boring: Bengals defeat the Saints.